Wi-Fi's signal may be getting stronger. That is seemingly Comcast's CMCSA -0.14%dream—and one that may be shared by
Sprint. S +1.79%
As Comcast seeks regulatory approval to buy Time Warner Cable, TWC -0.21% the cable giant has been raising the idea of a wireless phone service using Wi-Fi hot spots for most of its voice and data traffic. Users would move onto a traditional wireless network only when Wi-Fi isn't available. Comcast has about a million hot spots deployed. But it says that without Time Warner Cable, it will be trickier to create a national competitor to existing wireless carriers.
This may seem like pandering to regulators aiming for more competition in wireless. Skeptics say the same about Sprint Chairman Masayoshi Son's recent touting of the reverse scenario—a wireless competitor to fixed-line broadband—as he may be attempting to woo regulators ahead of a potential bid for T-Mobile US. TMUS +2.18%
But, as with Sprint's plans, there are reasons to think Comcast is for real.
The economics work. That sets Comcast apart from Sprint, which faces an uphill battle making wireless broadband financially viable. Yet Sprint may end up benefiting if regulators take Comcast seriously: If cable can produce a national wireless carrier, opposition to any Sprint purchase of T-Mobile might soften.
Comcast started building its Wi-Fi network four years ago. Subscribers can use this wherever it exists, relieving pressure on their monthly wireless-data caps. Comcast has expanded the network by, for example, adding public hot spots.
Because Comcast already has the wires and authorizations in place, it costs little to add new hot spots. And a gigabyte of wireline data costs less than one-seventh the price of a gigabyte of wireless data.
So cable could potentially undercut traditional carriers. Priced at a 25% discount to current wireless offerings, cable providers could still make margins of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of 31%, according to New Street Research. It estimates cable firms could get 20% of their subscriber base onto wireless within five years.
Many other pieces for a national Wi-Fi phone service exist already. Comcast and other cable firms have an agreement with Verizon Communications VZ +1.06% to use its network for a wireless service. Comcast also has a deal with Clearwire, now part of Sprint. And an alliance with other cable firms, including Cablevision and Time Warner Cable, allows its customers to use those operators' Wi-Fi and vice versa. According to Mobidia, 63.4% of U.S. smartphone data traffic already travels via Wi-Fi. That should only expand with additional hot spots.
There are still technical hurdles to ensuring seamless handoffs between Wi-Fi and traditional wireless networks. And Comcast customers must sign in again when moving to another operator's network. But carriers such as Republic Wireless, which already uses Wi-Fi for 90% of its data traffic, have been perfecting handoff technology, and the industry seems to be moving toward lower hurdles to Wi-Fi access.
Bigger obstacles may include getting handset makers to agree to make devices with the necessary specifications for a Wi-Fi-based network and Comcast's own appetite for going head-to-head with incumbents including Verizon and AT&T.
For Sprint, having Comcast as a low-price wireless competitor would also ultimately make life more difficult. But the idea of Comcast as a potential rival could help persuade regulators that wireless will remain competitive even if T-Mobile is taken over.
The government has been unusually outspoken in its opposition to such a deal. And Wi-Fi may be only a factor in its decision, with the long-term financial health of Sprint and T-Mobile likely being a bigger concern, according to Guggenheim Partners. But both Comcast and Sprint have reason to hope regulators agree that everything they think they know about wireless is about to be thrown into the air.
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